Will Demographics Ruin Israel?

An interesting article by Larry Lowenthal appeared in the March 11, 2011 issue of The Jewish Advocate, a Massachusetts weekly newspaper. The author is a former excutive director of the Greater Boston chapter of the American Jewish Committee. In it, Mr. Lowenthal highlights the population boom among ultra orthodox (Haredi) Jews in Israel along with a population bust among non-Haredi Jews, which he feels can lead to major changes in the country, mostly for the worse. He cites the fact that the Haredi, which make up only 10% of the population, have 30% of the babies, since they average 8-9 children per family in comparison to the 1.7 children per non-Haredi family. If these numbers keep up, the author predicts that the Haredi will comprise 17% of the Israeli population by 2025 and a majority by 2050. The problem the author sees with this is that such a trend can work against the "high-tech, industrialized, globally-connected" country that Israel has become. Seventy percent of the Haredi do not work, but they receive money from the government in the name of preserving the Jewish religion, and because the religious bloc is always needed to form a coalition government. In addition, while the Haredi study Judiasm, they shun important subjects such as science, math, political science, economics, foreign languages, and non-biblical history, and are allowed exemption from military service. Thus, as they become a larger proportion of Israel's population, they threaten to weaken the country's industry, economy, involvement with global intellectual life and, most dangerously, Israel's defense against its hostile neighbors. These possibilities don't bode well for Israel.

It is possible that the scenario Lowenthal describes will not play out. Not all Jews raised as Haredi will stay so. Some percentage of them will be intrigued by the outside world and will become part of the larger society. That certainly happened to most of the Orthodox Jews that immigrated to the United States from the late 1800s until after WWII. But the Haredi community has developed over the last several decades very effective systems for acculturating its children and inculcating in them a sense of belonging and religious fervor. Perhaps, while the less religious are still a majority in Israel, government policy will change so as to eliminate subsidies for the Haredi, forcing them to work in order to survive. That would put them in greater contact with the less religious and likely increase the number of them who merge into the larger society. Whatever happens, we can only hope that the current demographic trend does not weaken Israel's strong scientific, economic, and military status, and turn it into a vulnerable Third World country.

In the following week's Jewish Advocate, Mr. Lowenthal will describe another demographic threat to Israel. That is, the high birthrate of Isreali Arabs that is steadily increasing their proportion of the Israeli population.